Monday, April 27, 2009


This is strategic analysis of the highest order and you can bet dollars to doughnuts the CIA, the DIA and the US State Dept are looking long & hard at these developments.

Can a guerrilla force of 500 knock over a modern, established nation-state? In 1959 Fidel Castro pulled such a maneuver off, but Cuba of the Batista regime did not possess an army as professional and well-equipped as the Pakistani Army.

Contrary to popular opinion, the majority of the Cuban people were not with Fidel's revolution . . . and the majority of the Pakistani population is not with the Taliban. It is only possible for the Taliban to make such advances in the Federally Administered Tribal Regions, which are semi-autonomous and only nominally controlled by the government of Pakistan.

I suggest is that it is one thing for the Taliban to establish themselves in the autonomous Tribal areas; taking and (holding) territory in Pakistan proper against the regular Pakistani forces is quite another equation altogether. The one single factor that galvanizes Pakistani military forces against internal threat is the EXTERNAL threat they perceive (India).

Remember when Obama called for the invasion of Pakistan, during the election? We all laughed this off at the time as a classic case of foot-in-mouth disease.

I imagine it comes down to a question of will. If we - or the Pakistani government - possess the national strength of will, then the Taliban do not stand a chance. On the other hand, if we waiver in our commitment and the Pakistanis are weak in the face of adversity, then we are looking at the possibility of a total mess in Pakistan. At this time the US must consider the extreme worst-case-scenario: a nuclear-armed Taliban.

Queen's knight to Queen's bishop 3; your move, Mr. Obama.

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